Romney rising, Cain dropping, Perry on life support in latest Nevada poll

This week, the Magellan Strategies polling firm, released their latest polling numbers on the republicans running for President.  The autodial survey of 673 Likely Republican Nevada Caucus Goers (LRNCG), has shown some major changes for the front runners since their last poll which was released the first week of September.

Romney, who won the Nevada caucus in 2008, would win again, if the Nevada republican caucuses were held today. But they’re not, and polls tend to change on a daily basis, based on who appears to be getting the most headlines or is talked about in the media the most that week.

Here are the latest numbers for ALL voters in the Magellan poll.

Mitt Romney: 38%

Herman Cain: 26%

Newt Gingrich: 16%

Ron Paul: 7%

Rick Perry 5%

Michele Bachmann: 2%

Rick Santorum: 1%

Jon Huntsman: 1%

In August, the poll showed Perry leading with 29%, Romney 24% and Cain with 7%.

The Magellan poll also shows the breakdown numbers for sub-categories as well; Male voters, Female voters, Senior voters, Social conservatives, Fiscal conservatives Mormon voters, Tea Party voters, and Non-2008 voters. 

Mitt Romney is leading in all the sub-categories except two, Tea Party voters, which should be no surprise because they tend to like those that are the most extreme, and Non-2008 voters. Click the links above to read the numbers in the sub-categories.

Romney campaign lobbied Nevada GOP to move Caucus date

Former Nevada Governor Robert List, told the Las Vegas Review Journal this past Wednesday, that the Mitt Romney campaign lobbied Nevada Republicans to move the state’s caucuses up a month. The former governor is the Republican national committeeman on the State party’s executive board.

Yesterday, Mr. List tried to soften or walked back his statement, saying, “It was just friendly encouragement to accelerate. It’s my understanding that they were feeling that if he were to do well in Nevada and New Hampshire, that there could be sort of an escalating effect as he moved toward South Carolina and Florida. It could give them some momentum and could be helpful. They did feel that way. They were calling around.”

“But I want to emphasize that that isn’t why it was done,” he added. “The biggest picture is what was best for Nevada, and we wanted to protect our position, our voters’ opportunity to be the first in the West and to be a bellwether state in the cycle.”

The Romney campaign did not confirm or deny the report.

“Governor Romney is running a national campaign and is prepared to compete in every state ,” said Andrea Saul, a spokeswoman for the campaign. “He believes that Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus and New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary should be preserved, and he looks forward to competing in every other nominating contest – whenever they are scheduled. To be clear, states determine when their contests will be held. Governor Romney has always supported Nevada’s status as an early nominating contest.”

When Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian first heard of Florida’s plan to move up their primary date to January 31, 2012, she said she wasn’t sure if Nevada would change it’s caucus date.

“We’re a battleground state, but obviously Nevada is a smaller state, and I don’t want to lose our delegates,” said Tarkanian.

“The bottom line is: We want to follow the rules. Rules are made, we will follow the rules,” Tarkanian said. “But we want to have a voice. So if they expect us to stick to the rules, I really don’t have an answer” as to what Nevada will do.

If the Romney campaign lobby effort played a roll in the Nevada GOP moving its caucuses to January 14, 2012, you can be sure that it will not sit well with his rivals.

And Romney’s lobby efforts here in Nevada open up other questions, did his campaign also lobby in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina? Did his campaign push the Florida GOP into moving their primary to January, and therefore causing Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to move their caucuses and primaries?

The political strategists for the other candidates are most likely asking themselves these same questions after learning that Mitt Romney lobbied Nevada to move up its caucus date.






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Florida moves up GOP primary date causing four States to make changes

Florida has chosen to move its Primary date to January 31, 2012, which means that the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 6, the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 14, the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 18, and the South Carolina primary on Feb. 28 will all be looking to change their dates.

By moving the date, Florida will sacrifice half of it primary delegates at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fl.,  August 27-30, 2012.

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are the only four states allowed to vote before March 6, 2012 under Republican National Committee (RNC) rules, and they have collectively vowed to move the dates of their caucuses and primaries ahead of Florida to protect the early voting status. Which means it is possible that we could see the Iowa caucus in December 2011, possibly between Christmas and New Years.

Besides losing 50 percent of their delegates at the convention, RNC members are also mulling stiffer penalties for rule-breaking states, like banishing those delegations to far away hotels in the Tampa area and giving their delegations the worst seats inside the convention hall.

Florida’s move will also cause the republican candidates that are currently running to reschedule their fundraisers and campaign visits to the early caucus and primary States.  And it will cause any potential new candidates such as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie or Fox “News” contributor Sarah Palin to decide whether or not to get into the race in the next few days.

Amy Tarkanian, Chairman of the Nevada Republican Party, release a statement regarding Florida's decision to move the date of its primary.

"Florida's decision to move its primary is disappointing and, frankly, disrespectful of the other early primary states and the process as a whole.  Because the date of Nevada's caucus is, by rule, four days after New Hampshire's, we will move Nevada's First in the West caucus if the New Hampshire GOP moves theirs.  No matter what, we will not allow this disruption to interfere with our goal of creating a Presidential caucus that will be the pride of the western states.  This situation gives Nevadans the opportunity to showcase our ability to adapt and establish our state as a major player in national politics."

The four States that were ahead of Florida will work together with the RNC to pick news dates for their States.



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